Fri, Mar 30, 2012·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 29 | 18 | 115 | 432 |
| EDM | 12 | 08 | 04 | 114 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dwight King, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 1:34EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Jeff Petry, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 10:48LAKMike RichardsSHGWGAssists: Willie Mitchell, Matt Greene · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 6:44LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Justin Williams, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 7:45LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Matt Greene, Dwight King · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:09LAKMatt Greene: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:22EDMSam Gagner: Holding2 min
- P1 10:05LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:25EDMRyan Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:01EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:15LAKJustin Williams: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:36EDMAndy Sutton: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:22EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:12EDMCorey Potter: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:12LAKColin Fraser: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:14EDMRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:14EDMRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:14EDMDarcy Hordichuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:14LAKBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Richards – King8:23
xG 0.69–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – King2:41
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 2–0
- Stoll – Richardson – Lewis2:14
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stoll – Penner – Lewis4:05
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez10:54
xG 1.23–0.20 (86%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Voynov13:51
xG 0.93–0.35 (73%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Doughty12:40
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins3:34
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins4:59
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Petrell5:18
xG 0.04–0.16 (18%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Eager – VandeVelde4:36
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Smid – Petry5:16
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Sutton – Schultz2:54
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter3:28
xG 0.15–0.32 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).