Sat, Mar 31, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 18 | 110 | 03 | 233 |
| VAN | 17 | 011 | 112 | 14 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08VANMaxim LapierreAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 5:38CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 0:51CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: David Moss, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 11:45VANMarc-Andre GragnaniAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 3:58VANAndrew EbbettGWGAssists: Sami Salo, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:05CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:56CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:07VANRyan Kesler: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:07CGYScott Hannan: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:52CGYCory Sarich: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:52VANMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:20VANMason Raymond: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Moss – Comeau11:58
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Jones9:43
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stajan – Stempniak8:53
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross11:13
xG 0.28–0.49 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano16:07
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Hannan – Babchuk7:06
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler20:13
xG 0.15–0.94 (14%)attempts 7–27goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Burrows – Lapierre13:03
xG 0.34–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Malhotra – Ebbett – Kassian7:19
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Ebbett – Kassian2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kesler – Booth – Raymond8:27
xG 0.24–0.19 (57%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Gragnani13:56
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Salo – Alberts11:48
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Salo – Edler2:56
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).