Tue, Apr 3, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 210 | 211 | 16 | 527 |
| BOS | 113 | 17 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 14:58PITPaul MartinAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P1 16:57BOSBenoit PouliotAssists: Chris Kelly, Brian Rolston · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 0:18BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Rich Peverley · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 18:11PITJames NealPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 18:59PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 6:15PITArron AshamAssists: Craig Adams, Joe Vitale · Tip-in, 0.18 xG5–2
- P3 8:04BOSRich PeverleyAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.04 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:28BOSDavid Krejci: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 7:20BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:20PITJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:20BOSDaniel Paille: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 17:29BOSRich Peverley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:27PITJames Neal: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:27BOSAndrew Ference: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:21PITSidney Crosby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:30BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Staal11:13
xG 0.48–0.24 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Sullivan – Dupuis – Crosby8:12
xG 0.32–0.58 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
- Asham – Adams – Vitale6:30
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Neal9:48
xG 0.21–0.59 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang13:32
xG 1.14–0.57 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 1–3
- Orpik – Letang3:05
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Orpik – Engelland3:13
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Peverley – Lucic11:40
xG 0.98–0.47 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Rolston – Kelly – Pouliot10:19
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin12:57
xG 0.73–0.71 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille10:05
xG 0.05–0.79 (6%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg14:02
xG 1.28–0.72 (64%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Corvo – Krug3:16
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug2:50
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).