Tue, Apr 3, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Buffalo Sabres 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 313 | 06 | 26 | 00 | 525 |
| BUF | 09 | 219 | 313 | 14 | 645 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13TORTyler BozakAssists: Matt Frattin, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.44 xG1–0
- P1 14:49TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn · Slap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 16:42TORMatt FrattinAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 4:26BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Alexander Sulzer, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 10:44BUFAlexander SulzerUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 1:28TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Joey Crabb · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 2:24BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 10:39TORJake GardinerAssists: Tim Connolly, Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 14:57BUFAlexander SulzerAssists: Thomas Vanek, Brayden McNabb · Slap, 0.38 xG5–4
- P3 18:07BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–5
- OT 3:29BUFDerek RoyPPGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:40BUFBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:40TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:43BUFMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
- P1 7:43TORMatt Frattin: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:43BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:40TORJoey Crabb: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:09TORJoe Colborne: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:43TORBen Scrivens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:40TORMatt Frattin: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:52TORDion Phaneuf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Colborne
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Frattin – Bozak15:01
xG 1.44–0.19 (88%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Connolly – Lombardi – Brown9:13
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Crabb – MacArthur – Colborne11:32
xG 0.25–0.59 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Komisarek2:19
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Franson16:14
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gardiner14:04
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Ennis – Foligno12:49
xG 1.40–0.32 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Vanek – Tropp – Hodgson9:42
xG 0.41–0.25 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Gerbe2:42
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Gerbe – Ennis2:23
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Sulzer15:23
xG 1.44–0.56 (72%)attempts 13–11goals 2–2
- Weber – McNabb10:53
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Sekera – McNabb2:25
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).