Tue, Apr 3, 2012·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 4, Vancouver Canucks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 212 | 210 | 01 | 01 | 1 | 424 |
| VAN | 214 | 29 | 012 | 04 | 3 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:17VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 16:07ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Teemu Selanne · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 18:19VANChris HigginsAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jannik Hansen · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 2:24ANARod PelleyAssists: Bobby Ryan, Devante Smith-Pelly · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 7:03ANADevante Smith-PellyAssists: Bobby Ryan, Saku Koivu · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
- P2 11:21VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P2 18:33VANMaxim LapierreAssists: Henrik Sedin, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
- 2. ANA Teemu Selanne scored
- 3. VAN Alexander Edler scored
- 4. ANA Saku Koivu stopped
- 5. VAN Maxim Lapierre scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:48VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:38ANALuca Sbisa: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P1 15:55VANAndrew Ebbett: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:15ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:47ANARyan Getzlaf: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:08VANManny Malhotra: Interference2 min
- P3 2:42ANAMatt Beleskey: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:42ANARod Pelley: Holding2 min
- P3 13:30ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Ryan – Smith-Pelly3:16
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Selanne – Blake – Bonino3:13
xG 0.05–0.03 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Blake – Bonino – Smith-Pelly4:19
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Blake – Smith-Pelly3:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Visnovsky – Sbisa14:44
xG 0.23–0.28 (46%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Sbisa2:08
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Clark10:00
xG 0.18–0.56 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Burrows – Lapierre9:45
xG 0.49–0.15 (77%)attempts 17–6goals 2–0
- Pahlsson – Higgins – Hansen9:05
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kesler – Booth – Raymond4:25
xG 0.33–0.27 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Kesler – Raymond – Ebbett2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Edler2:04
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev13:57
xG 0.49–0.24 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Edler – Gragnani12:01
xG 0.78–0.53 (60%)attempts 18–11goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).