Thu, Apr 5, 2012·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 111 | 16 | 227 |
| WSH | 18 | 210 | 16 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42WSHJay BeagleAssists: Troy Brouwer, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 7:49WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–2
- P2 9:49WSHBrooks LaichGWGAssists: Keith Aucoin, Roman Hamrlik · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 15:41FLAMikael SamuelssonAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Marcel Goc · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 0:42FLAEd JovanovskiAssists: Brian Campbell, Jason Garrison · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:58WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich, Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:09FLAStephen Weiss: Holding2 min
- P1 15:20WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:54FLAMarcel Goc: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Goc – Bergenheim13:14
xG 1.19–0.16 (88%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Smithson – Upshall – Wolski5:41
xG 0.13–0.38 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Sturm – Madden – Kopecky9:21
xG 0.40–0.83 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg14:54
xG 0.69–1.17 (37%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison19:56
xG 1.20–1.12 (52%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson15:24
xG 0.62–0.66 (48%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov11:43
xG 0.59–0.69 (46%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Brouwer – Beagle12:30
xG 1.17–0.41 (74%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Laich – Ovechkin – Johansson7:16
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson4:28
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Knuble – Laich – Aucoin2:36
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson15:40
xG 0.79–0.15 (84%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Green16:10
xG 0.70–0.67 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Wideman – Orlov15:53
xG 0.42–1.38 (23%)attempts 7–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).