Thu, Apr 5, 2012·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 18 | 08 | 04 | 0 | 131 |
| CAR | 06 | 113 | 010 | 00 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:32MTLBlake GeoffrionAssists: Mike Blunden, Josh Gorges · Wrap-around, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 10:02CARChad LaRosePPAssists: Jamie McBain, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MTL Lars Eller stopped
- 2. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 3. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 4. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 5. MTL Erik Cole stopped
- 6. CAR Eric Staal scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:32MTLP.K. Subban: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:14CARDerek Joslin: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:11CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:28MTLBlake Geoffrion: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:36CARJoni Pitkanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:42CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:00MTLAaron Palushaj: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:32MTLAaron Palushaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:45MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P3 9:50MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:58CARJaroslav Spacek: Holding2 min
- P3 17:20MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:47CARChad LaRose: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:32CARTim Gleason: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestStaubitz – Palushaj – Dumont6:04
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Blunden – Geoffrion – Eller9:37
xG 0.62–0.54 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:16
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Leblanc6:44
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban10:21
xG 0.88–0.56 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Gorges – Campoli2:22
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Markov – St-Denis8:05
xG 0.14–0.23 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Skinner9:54
xG 0.61–0.32 (65%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- LaRose – Staal – Tlusty9:31
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Brent – Dwyer – Sutter4:17
xG 0.07–0.31 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain10:03
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Spacek – Harrison4:25
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Allen – Gleason3:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).