Thu, Apr 5, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 04 | 16 | 221 |
| DET | 06 | 114 | 04 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:13NJDAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Peter Harrold, David Clarkson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 6:13DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 11:20NJDPetr SykoraGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:39DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:32NJDMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:16DETBrad Stuart: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Clarkson – Henrique11:29
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Sykora – Elias – Zubrus10:53
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Boulton – Bernier – Carter6:33
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Parise – Zajac13:14
xG 0.07–0.44 (15%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Harrold13:57
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Zidlicky – Greene5:18
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Salvador – Fayne4:54
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEmmerton – Mursak – Nyquist5:52
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen12:49
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler14:02
xG 0.33–0.40 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader9:56
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Quincey16:18
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart2:09
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Ericsson15:18
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).