Thu, Apr 5, 2012·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 210 | 210 | 18 | 528 |
| COL | 111 | 114 | 012 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Darryl Boyce, Colton Gillies · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:56COLDavid JonesAssists: Jamie McGinn, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:29CBJRick NashAssists: Mark Letestu, Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 2:38COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Peter Mueller · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 6:47CBJRick NashPPGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 11:51CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–2
- P3 18:56CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Steve Mason · Backhand, 0.72 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:06COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:06CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:36CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:36COLShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:30CBJDarryl Boyce: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:52COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:22COLRyan O'Byrne: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:16CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:16CBJVinny Prospal: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:58CBJJames Wisniewski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:58COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:58COLJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Atkinson9:40
xG 0.91–0.28 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Prospal – Nash – Letestu7:27
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Russell – Dorsett – Johansen6:41
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Boyce – Russell – Dorsett2:03
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Prout8:50
xG 1.08–0.22 (83%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson19:14
xG 0.75–0.56 (58%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- Lebda – Nikitin13:40
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlver – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:09
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- McClement – McLeod – Mueller3:03
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn12:05
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Downie – Duchene5:43
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson13:12
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 23–1goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda12:53
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
- O'Brien – Barrie13:30
xG 0.38–1.13 (25%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).