Thu, Apr 5, 2012·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 09 | 113 | 234 |
| CGY | 03 | 08 | 317 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36VANAlexandre BurrowsSHAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 1:27CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Akim Aliu · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 9:02CGYCurtis GlencrossUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 16:23CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 16:49VANJannik HansenAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:25VANSamuel Pahlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:39CGYTim Jackman: Holding2 min
- P1 12:16CGYLance Bouma: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:59VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:59VANMaxim Lapierre: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:31CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:39CGYJarome Iginla: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:40CGYMatt Stajan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:26VANMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:26CGYAkim Aliu: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:44VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:40CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:40VANSamuel Pahlsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:26CGYBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Higgins – Hansen6:36
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Kesler – Bitz – Booth8:05
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Raymond – Ebbett – Weise5:07
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Burrows – Lapierre9:02
xG 0.17–1.15 (13%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Rome7:35
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa14:13
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Rome – Edler2:09
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Comeau – Jones6:23
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Aliu6:56
xG 0.39–0.25 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Glencross7:54
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Bouma5:57
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano12:45
xG 1.48–0.12 (93%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Hannan – Babchuk7:50
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Butler11:08
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 6–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).