Sat, Apr 7, 2012·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 3, Boston Bruins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 15 | 211 | 00 | 0 | 328 |
| BOS | 012 | 111 | 212 | 05 | 1 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:15BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 15:45BUFBrad BoyesAssists: Brayden McNabb, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 7:02BUFBrad BoyesAssists: Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 8:46BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 9:56BOSTyler SeguinPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Rich Peverley · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 12:21BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 2. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 3. BOS Tyler Seguin stopped
- 4. BUF Brad Boyes stopped
- 5. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 6. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:38BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:38BUFRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:02BUFMike Weber: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:48BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:27BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 19:16BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00BUFAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Gerbe – Hodgson5:36
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- McCormick – Ellis – Kaleta6:11
xG 0.51–0.07 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Gerbe – Ennis7:27
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Roy – Vanek5:58
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – McNabb2:48
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Brennan – McNabb12:59
xG 0.83–0.40 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Regehr – Sekera11:05
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin10:17
xG 0.31–0.07 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Lucic10:53
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Kelly – Pouliot – Caron9:31
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:19
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg15:26
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Mottau – Zanon2:03
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Corvo – Zanon14:24
xG 0.63–0.72 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).