Sat, Apr 7, 2012·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 16 | 05 | 221 |
| PIT | 16 | 38 | 09 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33PITPascal DupuisAssists: Arron Asham, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:07PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Harry Zolnierczyk, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:15PITChris KunitzAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 12:54PHIJaromir JagrPPAssists: Max Talbot, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 17:54PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:48PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:22PITJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:22PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:08PITBrian Strait: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:43PHIJakub Voracek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:15PHIZac Rinaldo: Checking from behind5 min
- P1 11:15PHIZac Rinaldo: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 17:00PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:00PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:12PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P2 17:18PHIJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:06PHIJody Shelley: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:47PHIHarry Zolnierczyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:29PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:13PITSteve MacIntyre: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Wellwood – Read4:18
xG 0.03–0.05 (43%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Hartnell – Schenn8:53
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier8:09
xG 0.08–0.48 (14%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kubina – Carle2:34
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:05
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Timonen – Carle5:34
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Staal6:21
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby7:05
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–7goals 2–0
- Park – Asham – Dupuis4:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Adams – MacIntyre – Vitale4:36
xG 0.10–0.10 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Engelland2:06
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Michalek9:49
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang10:57
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).