Sat, Apr 7, 2012·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 113 | 010 | 02 | 1 | 333 |
| DET | 09 | 012 | 29 | 02 | 0 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 17:20CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 8:11DETJohan FranzenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 19:13DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 2. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 3. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:29DETRiley Sheahan: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 12:14CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:38DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:22CHIBrent Seabrook: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:12CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:12DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:17DETCory Emmerton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kane won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Stalberg – Kruger8:36
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Morrison – Bickell – Shaw9:33
xG 0.17–0.19 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Mayers – Frolik – Bollig8:28
xG 0.00–0.22 (2%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kane – Hayes9:54
xG 0.14–0.58 (20%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson2:29
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson2:51
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:34
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Nyquist3:33
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Nyquist5:43
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Emmerton – Sheahan5:34
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Hudler6:32
xG 0.36–0.37 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Quincey9:34
xG 0.48–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Stuart – Kronwall12:16
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Ericsson10:17
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).