Sat, Apr 7, 2012·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 08 | 115 | 131 |
| MTL | 17 | 110 | 210 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20MTLTomas PlekanecSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 1:18MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 0:25TORDion PhaneufAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 4:07MTLErik ColeAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 18:02MTLBrad StaubitzENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:12MTLBlake Geoffrion: Boarding2 min
- P1 3:11MTLJosh Gorges: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:26TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:06MTLRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:20MTLMike Blunden: Interference2 min
- P2 6:20MTLBlake Geoffrion: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:20TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:14TORTim Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:55MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 16:52TORJohn-Michael Liles: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Frattin7:48
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Lombardi – Grabovski – Frattin5:20
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Kessel – Bozak6:45
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Rosehill – Brown3:53
xG 0.07–0.08 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Schenn11:55
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner11:39
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner2:02
xG 0.03–0.18 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestStaubitz – Palushaj – Dumont8:32
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Bourque – Leblanc9:34
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Cole – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:17
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 2–1
- Blunden – Geoffrion – Eller11:40
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban15:58
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Campoli11:45
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Markov – St-Denis10:15
xG 0.20–0.42 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).