Sat, Apr 7, 2012·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 16 | 110 | 11 | 425 |
| WPG | 03 | 115 | 212 | 01 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:49TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 1:12TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, JT Brown · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 8:53WPGNik AntropovAssists: Antti Miettinen, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 3:29TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brian Lee · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 4:59WPGJim SlaterAssists: Grant Clitsome, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 19:07WPGJim SlaterAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 1:08TBLTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:41WPGMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:40WPGGrant Clitsome: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:46TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:13TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:18WPGBryan Little: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Malone – Brown3:05
xG 0.89–0.05 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos4:23
xG 0.57–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Purcell – Brown4:19
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Connolly2:57
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman9:34
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Lee – Mikkelson3:22
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Aulie2:12
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMiettinen – Thorburn – Slater4:43
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Antropov – Kane – Burmistrov9:35
xG 0.32–0.47 (40%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Stapleton – Machacek – Cormier3:55
xG 0.02–0.27 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:57
xG 0.25–0.99 (20%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Flood2:19
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Bogosian6:43
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:54
xG 0.66–0.99 (40%)attempts 18–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).