Sat, Jan 19, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 08 | 18 | 327 |
| PHI | 06 | 111 | 010 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40PITPaul MartinPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Brandon Sutter · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:20PITJames NealGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 0:23PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Scott Hartnell, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:48PITChris KunitzENAssists: Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:47PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 4:50PITDustin Jeffrey: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:46PITSimon Despres: Interference2 min
- P1 16:02PITBrandon Sutter: Interference2 min
- P2 3:48PHINicklas Grossmann: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:27PITDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
- P3 17:33PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:58PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Neal – Tangradi8:17
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Adams – Glass – Jeffrey5:33
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:47
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter7:01
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Letang16:52
xG 0.91–0.54 (63%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Engelland – Despres7:57
xG 0.45–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin13:33
xG 0.06–0.68 (9%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Hartnell – Giroux – Schenn9:09
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Rinaldo – Wellwood6:56
xG 0.06–0.20 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Laughton11:10
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Talbot – Voracek – Couturier9:34
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn12:36
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Grossmann3:43
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Foster – Meszaros7:45
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).