Sat, Jan 19, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 05 | 110 | 227 |
| MIN | 05 | 318 | 112 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07COLJohn MitchellAssists: Steve Downie, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–0
- P2 3:26MINDany HeatleyPPAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–1
- P2 4:19MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Devin Setoguchi · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:01MINDany HeatleyPPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu · Deflected, 0.39 xG1–3
- P3 5:09COLCody McLeodAssists: Mark Olver, Greg Zanon · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:25MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:28MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28MINZenon Konopka: Interference2 min
- P1 9:05MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:17COLSteve Downie: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:22COLSteve Downie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:22COLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:25COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 13:27MINCal Clutterbuck: Holding2 min
- P2 17:15COLJan Hejda: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:46COLJohn Mitchell: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Mitchell – Downie6:54
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn9:22
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Parenteau – Duchene – Landeskog10:36
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hejda11:47
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Zanon – Wilson2:12
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Wilson11:18
xG 0.28–0.34 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBouchard – Brodziak – Clutterbuck6:09
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Granlund7:43
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Konopka – Mitchell – Powe3:22
xG 0.04–0.03 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Parise11:26
xG 0.35–0.76 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Prosser10:40
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stoner12:19
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:28
xG 0.60–1.05 (36%)attempts 17–22goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).