Sun, Jan 20, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 314 | 114 | 211 | 639 |
| NYR | 113 | 09 | 212 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:55NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.57 xG1–1
- P1 15:05PITTyler KennedyAssists: Joe Vitale, Simon Despres · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–1
- P1 18:50PITMatt NiskanenAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 9:11PITPascal DupuisPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 5:06PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.19 xG5–1
- P3 6:04NYRTaylor PyattAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Brad Richards · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 14:45NYRRick NashSHAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 18:08PITKris LetangENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:02NYRArron Asham: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 0:02PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:37NYRBrad Richards: Interference2 min
- P1 9:23PITSimon Despres: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:23PITBrandon Sutter: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 19:41PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:03NYRMichael Del Zotto: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:02NYRBrad Richards: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 19:07NYRMarc Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:09PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:23NYRStu Bickel: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:39NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:39PITCraig Adams: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:25
xG 1.27–0.42 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Tangradi5:58
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter9:04
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale4:11
xG 0.11–0.40 (21%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Despres7:54
xG 1.06–0.30 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Orpik – Martin18:32
xG 1.24–0.68 (65%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Letang14:06
xG 1.20–1.41 (46%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Nash4:36
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Nash – Callahan2:39
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Kreider3:50
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Callahan – Stepan4:09
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Del Zotto3:03
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Bickel10:59
xG 0.43–1.03 (30%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh13:01
xG 0.93–1.53 (38%)attempts 16–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).