Sun, Jan 20, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 38 | 212 | 631 |
| PHX | 19 | 110 | 210 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39PHXDavid MossUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:57CHIDave BollandPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:48PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Shane Doan, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 9:50CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Dave Bolland, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 17:34CHIMarian HossaAssists: Michal Rozsival, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 18:24CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Bryan Bickell, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 0:14CHIMarian HossaGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 4:38PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Derek Morris · Tip-in, 0.29 xG5–3
- P3 5:28PHXShane DoanAssists: Keith Yandle, David Schlemko · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 5:50CHIDave BollandAssists: Patrick Sharp, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:19PHXKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:46PHXShane Doan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:07CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:07PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:50CHIBrandon Bollig: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:04CHIMarian Hossa: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:30CHIMarian Hossa: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:09PHXRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:47PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P3 18:28PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Bolland – Kane11:06
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Frolik – Kruger – Bollig4:54
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad10:22
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw10:06
xG 0.37–0.36 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson16:46
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 19–14goals 2–1
- Rozsival – Leddy12:23
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook13:46
xG 0.33–1.15 (23%)attempts 12–17goals 1–3
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Boedker7:36
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker3:47
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Lombardi – Hanzal2:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
- Doan – Vermette – Lombardi4:18
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Schlemko11:30
xG 0.78–0.31 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Morris – Klesla3:18
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson14:55
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).