Mon, Jan 21, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 08 | 311 | 326 |
| NYI | 010 | 316 | 118 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:50NYIMichael GrabnerPPAssists: Mark Streit, Evgeni Nabokov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 16:23NYIMatt MartinAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 17:35NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 1:31NYIDavid UllstromGWGAssists: Keith Aucoin, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 2:22TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 7:26TBLBenoit PouliotAssists: B.J. Crombeen, Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 8:00TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Cory Conacher, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:01NYIJoe Finley: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01TBLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01TBLPierre-Cedric Labrie: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01TBLRyan Malone: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:01NYIColin McDonald: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:55TBLEric Brewer: Delaying game2 min
- P1 6:53NYIDavid Ullstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:04NYIMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
- P2 2:05TBLBrian Lee: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:14TBLCory Conacher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:50TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:16NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P2 19:07TBLKeith Aulie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:32TBLNate Thompson: Holding2 min
- P3 18:13TBLBrian Lee: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stamkos – Conacher4:53
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos4:29
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Malone – Thompson – Purcell2:25
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Pouliot – Pyatt2:33
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman11:17
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Brewer – Lee2:07
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lee – Aulie10:02
xG 0.43–1.00 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom6:51
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares10:34
xG 0.85–0.70 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
- Reasoner – Martin – Cizikas3:27
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Nielsen – Grabner10:20
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Strait12:57
xG 1.62–0.42 (80%)attempts 17–6goals 1–2
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:16
xG 1.01–0.78 (56%)attempts 9–15goals 2–1
- Carkner – Finley8:07
xG 0.19–0.18 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).