Mon, Jan 21, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 0, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 012 | 015 | 031 |
| OTT | 118 | 18 | 211 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:42OTTKyle TurrisPPGWGAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Daniel Alfredsson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:07OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Andre Benoit · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 17:35OTTJim O'BrienUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 18:56OTTJakob SilfverbergAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:41FLAPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:50OTTChris Neil: Holding2 min
- P1 9:04FLAKeaton Ellerby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:42FLAJack Skille: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:39OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:39FLAKeaton Ellerby: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:39OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:15FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:14OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Kovalev – Mueller – Huberdeau9:41
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Skille2:38
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Santorelli – Matthias8:11
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Upshall7:06
xG 0.12–0.43 (21%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Kulikov2:05
xG 0.13–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Weaver – Ellerby3:55
xG 0.01–0.03 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kuba – Campbell14:56
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRegin – Condra – O'Brien7:48
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:47
xG 0.49–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Turris8:25
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Silfverberg11:06
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips15:23
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:54
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Benoit – Wiercioch9:29
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).