Tue, Jan 22, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 010 | 211 | 326 |
| MIN | 112 | 07 | 011 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02MINDany HeatleyAssists: Zach Parise, Clayton Stoner · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 16:31NSHNick SpalingAssists: Kevin Klein, Brandon Yip · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 11:45NSHMartin EratGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:43NSHDavid LegwandPPAssists: Nick Spaling · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:18MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:18NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:16NSHNick Spaling: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:55MINMikko Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:55NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:43MINDarroll Powe: Interference2 min
- P2 4:03NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 9:19MINJustin Falk: Interference2 min
- P2 19:17NSHBrandon Yip: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:47NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:47MINCal Clutterbuck: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:36MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestYip – Spaling – Bourque10:01
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson9:15
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:31
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Klein12:29
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi16:28
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Hannan – Ellis2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBouchard – Brodziak – Clutterbuck9:59
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Heatley – Koivu – Parise11:14
xG 0.34–0.16 (69%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Granlund11:13
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Konopka – Mitchell – Powe3:27
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Prosser8:00
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stoner17:37
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:04
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).