Wed, Jan 23, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 210 | 111 | 00 | 329 |
| NYR | 211 | 19 | 011 | 12 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Rick Nash, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:49NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 1:05BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Rich Peverley · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 12:24BOSMilan LucicAssists: Zdeno Chara, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 13:10NYRTaylor PyattAssists: Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 15:37BOSNathan HortonAssists: Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 0:27NYRMarian GaborikGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:56NYRBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:16NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:31BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:31NYRBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 17:31BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:18NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:21NYRTaylor Pyatt: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:35BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:24NYRMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:30BOSAaron Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:17BOSAdam McQuaid: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:55BOSChris Kelly: Interference2 min
- P3 13:55NYRRick Nash: Holding2 min
- P3 16:10BOSDaniel Paille: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic11:59
xG 0.95–0.67 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin7:39
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bourque – Peverley5:55
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille3:44
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid2:51
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Boychuk2:41
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ference – Hamilton11:22
xG 0.50–0.60 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Nash10:21
xG 1.23–0.23 (85%)attempts 19–5goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Callahan – Stepan4:51
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Hagelin3:12
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Rupp – Boyle – Hagelin4:38
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh14:12
xG 1.08–0.35 (75%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Eminger – Stralman4:51
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Del Zotto14:51
xG 0.84–0.84 (50%)attempts 17–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).