Thu, Jan 24, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 212 | 413 | 734 |
| TOR | 316 | 09 | 118 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Cody Franson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:39NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 9:44TORNazem KadriAssists: John-Michael Liles, Matt Frattin · Snap, 0.32 xG1–2
- P1 12:48TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Matt Frattin, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 11:44NYIMark StreitPPAssists: Brad Boyes, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 13:10NYIBrad BoyesAssists: Frans Nielsen, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 3:23NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Brad Boyes, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 4:35NYIKeith AucoinGWGAssists: David Ullstrom, Colin McDonald · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 11:20NYIMatt MoulsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–3
- P3 17:47TORMatt FrattinAssists: Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.11 xG6–4
- P3 18:50NYIMichael GrabnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:29NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:04NYIMichael Grabner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:30TORMikhail Grabovski: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 8:00TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:20NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:15NYIKeith Aucoin: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 19:33NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Nielsen – Grabner10:36
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Tavares15:06
xG 0.96–0.73 (57%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- Reasoner – Martin – Cizikas9:22
xG 0.25–0.23 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom7:51
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 9–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Strait6:26
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Streit – Finley4:18
xG 0.25–0.06 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic21:34
xG 0.73–0.94 (44%)attempts 18–19goals 1–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Frattin – Kadri8:51
xG 0.53–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Orr – Steckel – McClement6:50
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – van Riemsdyk10:47
xG 0.59–0.83 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
- MacArthur – Kessel – Bozak15:23
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gardiner15:23
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson2:10
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Gardiner2:13
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).