Thu, Jan 24, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 217 | 110 | 333 |
| CAR | 07 | 421 | 210 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:02CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jordan Staal, Zac Dalpe · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:06CARJustin FaulkSHAssists: Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 8:50BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Jordan Leopold, Thomas Vanek · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 10:39BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Alexander Sulzer · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 13:56CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 14:05CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Jamie McBain, Joni Pitkanen · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 6:06BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek, Robyn Regehr · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 9:26CAREric StaalAssists: Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 18:32CAREric StaalENAssists: Zac Dalpe · Snap, 0.58 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:07CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:03BUFAlexander Sulzer: Holding2 min
- P1 9:23CARDrayson Bowman: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:13BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P1 16:14CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 3:07CARPatrick Dwyer: Interference2 min
- P2 4:49BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 18:43CARChad LaRose: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:33BUFAlexander Sulzer: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:44CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Hodgson9:04
xG 0.97–0.29 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 3–1
- Hecht – Kaleta – Scott3:38
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno9:06
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Ott – Gerbe – Grigorenko6:01
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer9:48
xG 1.01–0.42 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Regehr – Myers7:02
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera2:33
xG 0.09–0.17 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty10:09
xG 0.61–0.40 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Dalpe – Skinner6:06
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 2–2
- Jokinen – LaRose – Bowman7:29
xG 0.12–0.60 (17%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Harrison – Sanguinetti12:09
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain14:03
xG 0.79–0.76 (51%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Gleason – Faulk10:49
xG 0.52–1.16 (31%)attempts 13–17goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).