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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 24, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh

Buffalo Sabres 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.

CAR winsBUF wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:26Shot by Staal, saved by Enroth
  3. P1 1:07Skinner: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Staal, Dalpe, Faulk, Skinner · BUF Leopold, Pominville, Vanek, Sekera, Hodgson

  4. P1 1:19Shot by Brent, saved by Enroth4v5
  5. P1 2:43Shot by Bowman, saved by Enroth4v5
  6. P1 4:00Shot by Harrison, saved by Enroth
  7. P1 4:03Sulzer: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Harrison, Semin, Tlusty, Staal, Sanguinetti · BUF Regehr, Pominville, Sulzer, Gerbe, Hodgson

  8. P1 4:02Shot by Tlusty, saved by Enroth
  9. P1 4:58Shot by Semin, saved by Enroth5v4
  10. P1 7:34Shot by Foligno, saved by Ward
  11. P1 8:49Shot by Pominville, saved by Ward
  12. P1 9:23Bowman: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Jokinen, LaRose, Pitkanen, McBain, Bowman · BUF Ott, Ehrhoff, Gerbe, Myers, Grigorenko

  13. P1 9:51Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Ward4v5
  14. P1 12:53Shot by Pitkanen, saved by Enroth
  15. P1 14:13Myers: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Semin, Pitkanen, Staal, Tlusty, McBain · BUF Regehr, Stafford, Myers, Ennis, Foligno

  16. P1 15:22Shot by Ott, saved by Ward5v4
  17. P1 16:14Staal: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Semin, Pitkanen, Staal, Staal, Skinner · BUF Regehr, Pominville, Sulzer, Hodgson, Myers

  18. P1 17:50Shot by Pominville, saved by Ward4v5
  19. P1 18:20Shot by Vanek, saved by Ward
  20. P1 0:00Period end
  21. P2 0:00Period start
  22. P2 0:32Shot by Foligno, saved by Ward
  23. P2 1:02Goal by Skinner (Staal, Dalpe)+21 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Staal, Dalpe, Faulk, Skinner · BUF Leopold, Vanek, Stafford, Sekera, Hodgson

  24. P2 2:22Shot by Staal, saved by Enroth
  25. P2 2:28Shot by Semin, saved by Enroth
  26. P2 2:58Shot by Kaleta, saved by Ward
  27. P2 3:07Dwyer: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Harrison, Brent, Dwyer, Westgarth, Faulk · BUF Leopold, Sekera, Kaleta, Scott, Ennis

  28. P2 3:15Shot by Hodgson, saved by Ward4v5
  29. P2 3:35Shot by Pominville, saved by Ward4v5
  30. P2 3:40Shot by Pominville, saved by Ward4v5
  31. P2 4:06Goal by Faulk (Staal)4v5+12 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Pitkanen, Tlusty, Staal, Faulk · BUF Ott, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Hodgson

  32. P2 4:19Shot by Leopold, saved by Ward4v5
  33. P2 4:49Myers: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: CAR Harrison, Pitkanen, Staal, Bowman · BUF Leopold, Stafford, Myers, Ennis, Foligno

  34. P2 5:58Shot by Skinner, saved by Enroth5v4
  35. P2 6:05Shot by Staal, saved by Enroth5v4
  36. P2 6:06Shot by Jokinen, saved by Enroth5v4
  37. P2 6:43Shot by LaRose, saved by Enroth5v4
  38. P2 7:03Shot by McBain, saved by Enroth
  39. P2 7:31Shot by Tlusty, saved by Enroth
  40. P2 8:06Shot by Sekera, saved by Ward
  41. P2 8:23Shot by Skinner, saved by Enroth
  42. P2 8:47Shot by Leopold, saved by Ward
  43. P2 8:50Goal by Hodgson (Leopold, Vanek)+13 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Staal, Dalpe, Faulk, Skinner · BUF Leopold, Pominville, Vanek, Sulzer, Hodgson

  44. P2 10:32Shot by Stafford, saved by Ward
  45. P2 10:39Goal by Pominville (Ehrhoff, Sulzer)+24 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Staal, Dalpe, Faulk, Skinner · BUF Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Sulzer, Hodgson

  46. P2 12:07Shot by Jokinen, saved by Enroth
  47. P2 13:03Shot by Sanguinetti, saved by Enroth
  48. P2 13:27Shot by Gleason, saved by Enroth
  49. P2 13:56Goal by Skinner, unassisted+25 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Staal, Dalpe, Faulk, Skinner · BUF Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Sulzer, Hodgson

  50. P2 14:05Goal by Staal (McBain, Pitkanen)+13 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Semin, Pitkanen, Staal, Tlusty, McBain · BUF Regehr, Stafford, Sekera, Ennis, Foligno

  51. P2 15:02Shot by Ott, saved by Ward
  52. P2 15:38Shot by Dwyer, saved by Enroth
  53. P2 15:56Shot by Faulk, saved by Enroth
  54. P2 16:01Shot by Gleason, saved by Enroth
  55. P2 16:08Shot by Gerbe, saved by Ward
  56. P2 16:20Shot by Hecht, saved by Ward
  57. P2 16:46Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Ward
  58. P2 17:45Shot by Stafford, saved by Ward
  59. P2 17:59Shot by Tlusty, saved by Enroth
  60. P2 18:01Shot by Jokinen, saved by Enroth
  61. P2 18:43LaRose: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Jokinen, LaRose, Pitkanen, McBain, Bowman · BUF Regehr, Ott, Gerbe, Myers, Grigorenko

  62. P2 19:14Shot by Vanek, saved by Ward4v5
  63. P2 0:00Period end
  64. P3 0:00Period start
  65. P3 1:06Shot by Grigorenko, saved by Ward
  66. P3 1:31Shot by Stafford, saved by Ward
  67. P3 3:12Shot by Pominville, saved by Ward
  68. P3 4:55Shot by Bowman, saved by Enroth
  69. P3 6:06Goal by Pominville (Vanek, Regehr)+11 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Gleason, Dwyer, Staal, Faulk, Skinner · BUF Regehr, Pominville, Vanek, Hodgson, Myers

  70. P3 6:31Shot by Hodgson, saved by Ward
  71. P3 6:59Shot by Stafford, saved by Ward
  72. P3 7:17Shot by Foligno, saved by Ward
  73. P3 8:17Shot by Dalpe, saved by Enroth
  74. P3 9:26Goal by Staal (Pitkanen)+11 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Semin, Pitkanen, Staal, McBain, Skinner · BUF Leopold, Pominville, Scott, Hodgson, Myers

  75. P3 10:33Sulzer: Roughing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: CAR Harrison, Jokinen, LaRose, Semin, Staal, Sanguinetti · BUF Hecht, Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Kaleta, Scott

  76. P3 11:50Shot by Staal, saved by Enroth5v4
  77. P3 12:05Shot by Dalpe, saved by Enroth5v4
  78. P3 12:44Staal: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: CAR Gleason, LaRose, Staal, Faulk, Skinner · BUF Hecht, Ehrhoff, Sulzer, Kaleta, Myers

  79. P3 12:49Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Ward4v5
  80. P3 14:38Shot by Bowman, saved by Enroth4v5
  81. P3 15:01Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Ward
  82. P3 15:11Shot by Foligno, saved by Ward
  83. P3 15:21Shot by Jokinen, saved by Enroth
  84. P3 16:06Shot by Skinner, saved by Enroth
  85. P3 18:32Goal by Staal (Dalpe)5v60 pts WP

    On ice: CAR Harrison, Pitkanen, Staal, Dalpe, Skinner · BUF Leopold, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Hodgson, Ennis

  86. P3 19:21Shot by McBain, saved by Enroth
  87. P3 0:00Period end
  88. P3 0:00Final