Thu, Jan 24, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 116 | 19 | 112 | 337 |
| FLA | 17 | 013 | 06 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Tomas Kopecky · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:25OTTChris PhillipsPPAssists: Marc Methot, Zack Smith · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:28OTTErik KarlssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 18:44OTTJason SpezzaENAssists: Milan Michalek, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:16OTTSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:38FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:37FLAScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:29OTTJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:18OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:09OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P3 1:32FLADrew Shore: Interference2 min
- P3 1:41OTTErik Karlsson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 10:49FLABrian Campbell: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Mueller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Smith9:55
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Regin – Condra – O'Brien7:21
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Turris8:55
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Silfverberg11:15
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Wiercioch11:05
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips14:25
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson17:04
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Smithson – Fleischmann – Skille2:54
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Skille2:03
xG 0.06–0.07 (50%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Fleischmann – Santorelli11:06
xG 0.27–0.37 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Mueller – Huberdeau10:17
xG 0.11–0.22 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov10:18
xG 0.53–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov3:02
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Weaver2:01
xG 0.04–0.03 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).