Thu, Jan 24, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 03 | 04 | 06 | 013 |
| STL | 19 | 111 | 14 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59STLT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, David Backes · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P2 9:26STLPatrik BerglundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 9:04STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:22NSHMatt Halischuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:44STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:10NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:11NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:11STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:26NSHMike Fisher: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 16:20NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:23STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:22STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P3 13:45STLWade Redden: Interference2 min
- P3 17:42NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson9:12
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Clune – Halischuk – Smith2:58
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Yip – Spaling – Bourque8:14
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn8:47
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Josi2:36
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gill – Ellis7:51
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hannan – Ellis4:11
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Steen – Tarasenko10:13
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron11:22
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Schwartz8:42
xG 0.07–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves6:09
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Russell11:52
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Redden – Pietrangelo13:06
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:31
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).