Thu, Jan 24, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Phoenix Coyotes 3, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 09 | 113 | 213 | 335 |
| SJS | 115 | 02 | 418 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:22SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 7:11PHXSteve SullivanPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 5:01PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Derek Morris · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 7:28PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Boyd Gordon, David Moss · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 9:15SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 13:06SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Ryane Clowe, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 18:07SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 19:57SJSJoe ThorntonENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:42PHXMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P1 5:21PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:34SJSJames Sheppard: Interference2 min
- P1 19:17PHXDerek Morris: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16SJSTJ Galiardi: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:22SJSAndrew Desjardins: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:54PHXZbynek Michalek: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:58SJSMartin Havlat: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:51PHXSteve Sullivan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:51PHXSteve Sullivan: Interference2 min
- P3 3:09SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:01PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Korpikoski8:32
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Bissonnette – Bolduc – Chipchura2:28
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Lombardi – Boedker5:06
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Chipchura – Boedker4:26
xG 0.06–0.16 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Morris – Yandle13:43
xG 0.65–0.78 (45%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Stone9:41
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson14:25
xG 0.34–0.71 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski9:32
xG 1.09–0.20 (84%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture9:46
xG 0.87–0.05 (95%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Burish – Desjardins – Sheppard3:09
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Handzus – Galiardi – Wingels9:26
xG 0.05–0.66 (7%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin12:00
xG 1.02–0.17 (86%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Stuart – Vlasic12:24
xG 1.14–0.40 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Boyle – Murray3:11
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).