Sat, Jan 26, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 0, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 05 | 011 | 024 |
| SJS | 27 | 219 | 017 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:09SJSPatrick MarleauPPGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.45 xG0–1
- P1 17:27SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 2:32SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–3
- P2 17:05SJSMatt IrwinAssists: Martin Havlat, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.02 xG0–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 6:08SJSAndrew Desjardins: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:46SJSLogan Couture: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:40SJSBrad Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:40COLRyan O'Byrne: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P1 15:40COLRyan O'Byrne: Instigator face shield2 min · PPG
- P1 15:40COLRyan O'Byrne: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:40COLRyan O'Byrne: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 0:42COLPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:54COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:35COLGreg Zanon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:41COLCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:41COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:41COLPatrick Bordeleau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:41COLPatrick Bordeleau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:41SJSAdam Burish: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:41SJSAndrew Desjardins: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:59COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Kobasew – Mitchell8:10
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Olver4:40
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn10:54
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Duchene – Landeskog11:39
xG 0.26–0.81 (25%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Hunwick10:38
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Wilson3:26
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Wilson10:43
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Pavelski9:55
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture10:07
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Gomez – Burish – Desjardins8:27
xG 0.52–0.65 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Handzus – Galiardi – Wingels10:29
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Vlasic11:47
xG 0.90–0.14 (86%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin15:56
xG 0.84–0.74 (53%)attempts 24–20goals 0–0
- Murray – Braun13:32
xG 0.09–0.53 (15%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).