Tue, Jan 29, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 010 | 18 | 08 | 126 |
| DET | 07 | 213 | 27 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:22DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Cody Eakin, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 13:14DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 19:36DETHenrik ZetterbergPPGWGAssists: Patrick Eaves, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 6:15DETDamien BrunnerAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 6:38DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:03DALEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03DETJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:54DALCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:14DETDrew Miller: Interference2 min
- P1 10:57DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P1 16:11DALBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:11DETJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:55DETJakub Kindl: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:16DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 2:42DALTom Wandell: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:19DALJamie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:00DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:42DALRay Whitney: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:40DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 13:38DALPhilip Larsen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Abdelkader won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Morrow – Wandell – Smith3:27
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Nystrom – Garbutt6:48
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Jagr – Eriksson – Benn10:46
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Whitney – Ryder – Eakin7:14
xG 0.15–0.39 (27%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Dillon9:47
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Benn9:49
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Goligoski – Larsen10:42
xG 0.24–0.79 (23%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Miller – Emmerton6:35
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Filppula8:01
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 2–1
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Brunner10:56
xG 0.76–0.71 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Cleary – Eaves – Abdelkader7:35
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Kindl8:50
xG 0.77–0.09 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Quincey2:21
xG 0.33–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith2:16
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).