Tue, Jan 29, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 013 | 28 | 07 | 02 | 0 | 230 |
| SJS | 14 | 06 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:46SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 8:40ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Saku Koivu, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 9:39ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 17:15SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Scott Gomez, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Michal Handzus scored
- 2. ANA Bobby Ryan stopped
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 5. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
- 6. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:53SJSAndrew Desjardins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:49SJSRyane Clowe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:35SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:15ANADaniel Winnik: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:55SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:07ANALuca Sbisa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Ryan – Bonino11:32
xG 0.78–0.05 (94%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Etem – Rakell6:41
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano8:47
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey9:59
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Beauchemin13:59
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Allen – Fowler13:46
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Lydman – Sbisa15:42
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Havlat – Clowe – Couture6:33
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Clowe – Couture4:24
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Handzus – Galiardi – Wingels2:36
xG 0.05–0.04 (60%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski9:55
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Irwin3:29
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Stuart – Petrecki2:39
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Murray2:35
xG 0.23–0.08 (76%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).