Thu, Jan 31, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 7, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 315 | 48 | 732 |
| BOS | 014 | 312 | 116 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:38BUFThomas VanekAssists: Cody Hodgson, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:12BOSRich PeverleyAssists: Daniel Paille, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 7:43BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:54BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 16:46BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–3
- P2 18:19BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Thomas Vanek, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 1:45BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 2:28BUFAlexander SulzerAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 6:54BUFCody HodgsonGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 18:29BUFThomas VanekAssists: Cody Hodgson, Mike Weber · Backhand, 0.10 xG6–4
- P3 19:46BUFJason PominvilleENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG7–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:53BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:53BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:29BUFJordan Leopold: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:36BUFJohn Scott: Elbowing2 min
- P2 5:32BOSRich Peverley: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:45BOSMilan Lucic: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min
- P3 11:25BUFTyler Myers: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:56BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Hodgson12:00
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 3–1
- Hecht – Foligno – Grigorenko6:45
xG 0.18–0.16 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Ellis – Gerbe – Scott3:45
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Ennis11:23
xG 0.57–0.66 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Weber17:11
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 8–22goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer14:20
xG 0.68–1.11 (38%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Leopold – Myers12:32
xG 0.69–1.15 (38%)attempts 12–18goals 2–3
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Paille – Peverley7:06
xG 0.77–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin10:39
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic14:04
xG 0.67–0.78 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Kelly – Campbell – Paille2:06
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Hamilton2:27
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ference – McQuaid12:59
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Chara – Boychuk13:45
xG 0.81–0.63 (56%)attempts 19–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).