Thu, Jan 31, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 16 | 09 | 222 |
| TOR | 115 | 09 | 216 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36WSHJoel WardAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Jason Chimera · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:19TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 2:38WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 7:40TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Michael Kostka, Jay McClement · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–2
- P3 9:53TORMatt FrattinGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:20WSHJeff Schultz: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:13WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:13WSHJason Chimera: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:45WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference2 min
- P1 10:27WSHTroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:50TORPhil Kessel: Interference2 min
- P1 18:10TORMichael Kostka: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:04TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:21WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:04WSHTroy Brouwer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:58WSHJay Beagle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ovechkin – Wolski3:34
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ward6:55
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Johansson2:47
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Wolski – Brouwer – Backstrom5:32
xG 0.04–0.26 (13%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner15:18
xG 0.84–0.26 (76%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Schultz – Green2:16
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kundratek2:08
xG 0.05–0.11 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Grabovski – Kulemin11:30
xG 0.55–0.09 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak9:02
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Komarov – Frattin – Kadri8:49
xG 0.13–0.19 (42%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Orr – Steckel – Hamilton5:22
xG 0.13–0.48 (22%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gunnarsson12:49
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Kostka12:46
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Franson – Fraser8:55
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).