Thu, Jan 31, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 08 | 210 | 329 |
| NYR | 06 | 013 | 09 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Simon Despres, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 0:28PITJames NealPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 10:23PITSimon DespresAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Craig Adams · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:22NYRRick Nash: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:01PITJames Neal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:48NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:22NYRDan Girardi: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:49PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
- P2 7:11NYRMichael Del Zotto: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:35NYRCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P2 14:48PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:18NYRMarian Gaborik: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 8:14PITSimon Despres: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:09NYRJeff Halpern: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Sutter5:17
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:54
xG 0.41–0.23 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale3:12
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Jeffrey8:19
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin14:19
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Despres9:52
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Engelland – Bortuzzo6:51
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Gaborik – Hagelin4:11
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash8:33
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Rupp – Boyle – Ferriero3:29
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hagelin – Stepan3:17
xG 0.01–0.33 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh10:55
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Stralman – Gilroy7:45
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Del Zotto12:48
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).