Sat, Feb 2, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 011 | 08 | 126 |
| COL | 013 | 213 | 114 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58EDMNail YakupovAssists: Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 12:07COLPA ParenteauAssists: Jamie McGinn, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 15:36COLJamie McGinnGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 18:50COLPaul StastnyENAssists: John Mitchell, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:32EDMMark Fistric: Interference2 min
- P1 9:42COLPatrick Bordeleau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:23EDMTeemu Hartikainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:34EDMEric Belanger: Holding2 min
- P2 10:04EDMAnton Lander: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:26COLDavid Van Der Gulik: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:27EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
- P3 13:09EDMJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
- P3 16:40COLPaul Stastny: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:38
xG 1.16–0.55 (68%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov8:19
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Smyth – Belanger – Petrell5:06
xG 0.12–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Hartikainen – Lander3:23
xG 0.02–0.03 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz10:25
xG 0.84–0.27 (75%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry12:30
xG 0.66–0.40 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Whitney – Fistric9:18
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Hejduk – Mitchell – Stastny6:21
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Van Der Gulik – Bordeleau – Sgarbossa2:33
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene11:51
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Mitchell – McLeod2:58
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson11:18
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda3:05
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zanon – Johnson2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).