Tue, Feb 5, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 18 | 212 | 426 |
| NYI | 012 | 012 | 210 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58PITJames NealPPAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 16:00PITSimon DespresAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 1:44PITBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Matt Cooke · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 3:14NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 3:49NYIBrad BoyesAssists: Matt Moulson, Brian Strait · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 19:21PITPascal DupuisENAssists: Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:52NYIMarty Reasoner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:40PITCraig Adams: Interference2 min
- P1 17:22PITSimon Despres: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:46NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:46PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:55PITJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:05NYITravis Hamonic: Interference2 min
- P2 8:10PITSimon Despres: Interference2 min
- P2 10:32PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:27PITJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:59NYIBrian Strait: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:32PITChris Kunitz: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby5:41
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter6:11
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale6:10
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Boychuk7:14
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Despres11:20
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Orpik – Martin13:31
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Engelland – Bortuzzo8:00
xG 0.31–0.31 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares11:15
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Aucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom5:23
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Cizikas6:02
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner7:31
xG 0.31–0.56 (35%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Strait13:48
xG 0.93–0.23 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Carkner – Hickey6:33
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic13:32
xG 0.46–1.40 (25%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).