Wed, Feb 6, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 28 | 17 | 05 | 320 |
| COL | 010 | 010 | 011 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20ANASheldon SourayGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:39ANASaku KoivuPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Sheldon Souray · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P2 10:45ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Daniel Winnik, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.09 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:00ANABrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:00COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:23ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
- P1 14:07COLMichael Sgarbossa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:47COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:16COLPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:16ANASheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:05COLShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:05COLShane O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:05COLShane O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Winnik – Cogliano13:01
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Staubitz – Beleskey – Bonino7:29
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Palmieri10:33
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Etem11:06
xG 0.27–1.00 (22%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHendry – Sbisa15:37
xG 0.86–0.61 (59%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Souray – Beauchemin16:45
xG 0.44–0.71 (38%)attempts 13–21goals 2–0
- Allen – Vatanen14:04
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKobasew – Bordeleau – Olver4:32
xG 0.53–0.09 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Mitchell – Stastny3:44
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene13:27
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Jones – McLeod – Sgarbossa2:08
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Hunwick8:50
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Zanon – Johnson12:13
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Zanon – O'Byrne6:04
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).