Thu, Feb 7, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 14 | 17 | 219 |
| NJD | 011 | 211 | 25 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:28NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.44 xG0–1
- P2 13:19TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 17:34NJDIlya KovalchukSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 15:02NJDAndy GreenePPGWGAssists: David Clarkson, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 15:16NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
- P3 17:45TBLMatt CarleAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:36NJDAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 4:37TBLBrendan Mikkelson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:25NJDBryce Salvador: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:58NJDKrys Barch: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:23NJDBobby Butler: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 13:29TBLMartin St. Louis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47TBLAdam Hall: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 17:25TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:25NJDDavid Clarkson: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos5:28
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Thompson – Stamkos4:28
xG 0.23–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Conacher2:16
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Pyatt – Purcell3:41
xG 0.02–0.03 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Aulie3:35
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mikkelson – Aulie3:16
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Salo – Hedman11:37
xG 0.44–0.33 (58%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Henrique10:59
xG 1.07–0.31 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Matteau8:33
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Barch – Josefson – Butler3:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter7:27
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky10:22
xG 1.45–0.44 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Greene – Larsson13:46
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Salvador – Fayne13:26
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).