Thu, Feb 7, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 19 | 011 | 128 |
| NYR | 210 | 18 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Chris Kreider, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:04NYRMarian GaborikGWGAssists: Marc Staal, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 11:13NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Joe Finley · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 18:11NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 17:52NYRRyan McDonaghENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:49NYRRick Nash: Holding2 min
- P2 3:50NYRJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:46NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P2 16:36NYIMatt Moulson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:37NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:09NYRDarroll Powe: Holding2 min
- P3 11:28NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares12:00
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Ullstrom9:57
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Boulton – Reasoner – Martin7:23
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:25
xG 0.13–0.97 (12%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic11:43
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Streit – Hickey4:04
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Strait – Hickey2:37
xG 0.23–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Pyatt – Gaborik9:25
xG 1.13–0.24 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash2:25
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Asham – Halpern – Powe4:32
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Callahan – Kreider – Miller7:35
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Del Zotto13:01
xG 1.24–0.63 (67%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Stralman – Del Zotto2:44
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Eminger – Gilroy5:30
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).