Thu, Feb 7, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 06 | 111 | 225 |
| PIT | 05 | 518 | 05 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12WSHMike RibeiroAssists: Tomas Kundratek, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 6:59PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Paul Martin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:49PITPascal DupuisAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 16:33PITJames NealPPGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 16:44PITMatt CookeAssists: Brandon Sutter · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 19:38PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, James Neal · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–5
- P3 8:34WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:05WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P2 6:49WSHKarl Alzner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42WSHJoel Ward: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:18WSHRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:59WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:59PITRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:48PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:00PITRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Crabb – Fehr3:01
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Beagle6:25
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ward – Hendricks – Beagle2:01
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Johansson11:55
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Kundratek12:23
xG 0.66–0.25 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Schultz – Carlson14:46
xG 0.24–0.36 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Green – Alzner17:22
xG 0.28–0.60 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Neal – Boychuk10:06
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter8:10
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:36
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Adams – Glass – Vitale8:13
xG 0.07–0.51 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin17:52
xG 0.75–0.58 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Reese – Despres10:58
xG 0.39–0.23 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Bortuzzo14:36
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).