Thu, Feb 7, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 5, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 212 | 215 | 12 | 529 |
| STL | 09 | 18 | 010 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Tomas Tatar, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P1 11:50DETJakub KindlGWGAssists: Cory Emmerton, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 15:45STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 17:33DETCory EmmertonAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–1
- P2 19:04DETDamien BrunnerAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P3 13:35DETValtteri FilppulaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:33STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
- P2 13:02DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:09STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:10DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 12:38DETJohan Franzen: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 12:38DETJohan Franzen: Spearing5 min
- P3 12:38STLDavid Perron: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Miller – Emmerton7:20
xG 0.62–0.03 (96%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Cleary – Abdelkader – Tatar9:58
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Brunner13:39
xG 0.49–0.39 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Filppula11:06
xG 0.11–0.23 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Ericsson13:22
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Quincey – Kindl11:07
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- White – Kindl2:47
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Berglund – Perron2:50
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie2:21
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McDonald – Sobotka – Tarasenko2:54
xG 0.04–0.04 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nichol – Sobotka – Reaves4:42
xG 0.00–0.11 (2%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk15:18
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Polak – Shattenkirk2:29
xG 0.05–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:10
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).