Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 18 | 113 | 03 | 333 |
| PHI | 114 | 28 | 07 | 13 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17CARJiri TlustyAssists: Joe Corvo, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.29 xG1–0
- P1 13:52PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:33PHIMatt ReadAssists: Mike Knuble · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 11:17CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Jordan Staal, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:32PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Brayden Schenn, Ilya Bryzgalov · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 7:58CARJoe CorvoAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 1:47PHIDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:34CARTim Wallace: Boarding5 min
- P1 6:34CARTim Wallace: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 6:34PHIBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:11CARBobby Sanguinetti: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:04PHIMike Knuble: Interference2 min
- P2 6:36CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:07CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:07PHIZac Rinaldo: Diving2 min
- P2 16:16PHIMike Knuble: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:07PHINicklas Grossmann: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – LaRose – Brent3:25
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Bowman6:50
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Staal – Skinner12:30
xG 0.79–0.89 (47%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty12:35
xG 0.37–0.92 (29%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason13:15
xG 0.84–0.65 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Pitkanen – Faulk15:37
xG 0.66–0.51 (56%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Gleason – Harrison3:35
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Talbot – Rinaldo7:44
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Brière – Giroux – Simmonds9:20
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Brière – Simmonds – Schenn2:06
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Voracek – Schenn – McGinn7:57
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Grossmann11:14
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gervais9:13
xG 0.44–0.29 (61%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Coburn – Schenn3:57
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).