Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 110 | 06 | 124 |
| DET | 09 | 113 | 18 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:33DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Damien Brunner, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 17:55EDMJustin SchultzPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Teemu Hartikainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 6:08DETNiklas KronwallPPGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 14:48EDMRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:43DETDaniel Cleary: Interference2 min
- P2 0:38DETJordin Tootoo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:21EDMNail Yakupov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:21EDMRyan Smyth: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:32EDMRyan Whitney: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:04EDMCorey Potter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding2 min
- P2 14:14EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:34DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:51DETJoakim Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:44DETJakub Kindl: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:34EDMChris VandeVelde: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:31DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:27DETJohan Franzen: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 19:34EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hartikainen – Nugent-Hopkins8:56
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Smyth – Eager – Petrell3:40
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Paajarvi – Yakupov4:28
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Yakupov3:10
xG 0.09–0.49 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz13:26
xG 1.11–0.81 (58%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry12:10
xG 0.27–0.89 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter10:40
xG 0.25–1.05 (19%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Filppula8:15
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Andersson – Tatar6:26
xG 0.56–0.14 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Brunner9:20
xG 0.91–0.89 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Cleary – Filppula – Abdelkader2:09
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Ericsson11:41
xG 1.09–0.36 (75%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl7:18
xG 0.73–0.03 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- White – Kindl2:24
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).