Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 0, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 011 | 06 | 027 |
| WSH | 18 | 27 | 210 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:45WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: John Carlson · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 3:36WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Braden Holtby · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 11:55WSHJoel WardAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Eric Fehr · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 3:49WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jason Chimera, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 9:28WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Jeff Schultz, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.39 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:44WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:44FLAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:32WSHJason Chimera: Interference2 min
- P2 2:35FLAGeorge Parros: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:25FLAJose Theodore: Interference2 min
- P2 18:51FLATomas Kopecky: Interference2 min
- P2 18:51WSHMike Green: Holding2 min
- P3 16:38WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Shore – Huberdeau12:13
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Skille10:42
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Matthias6:03
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Mueller10:08
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Gudbranson16:56
xG 0.64–0.62 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Kuba – Strachan14:34
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov14:12
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Fehr – Perreault9:25
xG 0.74–0.04 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Wolski – Brouwer – Backstrom12:06
xG 0.63–0.07 (89%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ribeiro – Ovechkin12:42
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Crabb – Beagle7:20
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Kundratek13:04
xG 1.19–0.11 (91%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carlson13:36
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Green2:22
xG 0.02–0.07 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).