Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 07 | 012 | 01 | 126 |
| MIN | 010 | 19 | 08 | 15 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 12:59MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Ryan Suter, Matt Cullen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- OT 4:21MINDevin SetoguchiPPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:49NSHGabriel Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:29NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:44MINNiklas Backstrom: Delaying game2 min
- P1 12:44NSHMartin Erat: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:11MINMikael Granlund: Interference2 min
- P1 18:21MINZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:21NSHBrandon Yip: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:40MINCharlie Coyle: Interference2 min
- P2 14:29MINRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:53NSHColin Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:18MINDevin Setoguchi: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:27MINTom Gilbert: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:48NSHPaul Gaustad: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Gaustad – Yip – Spaling3:30
xG 0.06–0.07 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn6:12
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Legwand – Wilson – Bourque8:46
xG 0.04–0.25 (13%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Yip – Spaling – Smith4:41
xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Klein2:22
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gill – Blum3:53
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Klein – Josi9:30
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle9:57
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Brodziak – Clutterbuck5:45
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Rupp – Konopka – Bouchard5:14
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Heatley – Setoguchi – Granlund8:40
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin14:24
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Falk – Prosser8:04
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stoner13:20
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).