Sat, Feb 9, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 09 | 014 | 134 |
| VAN | 07 | 315 | 29 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:18CGYLee StempniakAssists: Matt Stajan, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 8:34VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 9:01VANJordan SchroederPPGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 17:37VANKevin BieksaAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 1:18VANChris HigginsAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 15:41VANJordan SchroederAssists: Mason Raymond, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:28CGYAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:26CGYAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:48VANMaxim Lapierre: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:49CGYRoman Cervenka: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03CGYJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:00VANChris Higgins: Holding2 min
- P3 4:41CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tanguay won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBegin – Jackman – Jones6:19
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Stajan – Stempniak – Comeau5:48
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Iginla – Stajan – Glencross3:19
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Hudler – Stempniak2:33
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Butler – Smith13:57
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Giordano14:28
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
- Wideman – Brodie16:29
xG 0.53–0.72 (42%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows10:45
xG 0.84–0.04 (95%)attempts 16–3goals 2–0
- Hansen – Raymond – Schroeder8:18
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Higgins – Lapierre – Kassian6:41
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Weise – Volpatti4:33
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Garrison14:52
xG 0.99–0.61 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 3–0
- Ballard – Tanev13:20
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Edler13:26
xG 0.50–0.53 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).