Sun, Feb 10, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 115 | 023 | 19 | 247 |
| DET | 211 | 09 | 111 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:28DETDamien BrunnerAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Ian White · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 19:19LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Rob Scuderi, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 19:07LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Jeff Carter, Kyle Clifford · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 19:55DETJonathan EricssonGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:11DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:44LAKJustin Williams: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:17LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:35DETPavel Datsyuk: Holding2 min
- P2 9:47DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:14LAKAlec Martinez: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:51LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Carter – Clifford9:48
xG 1.71–0.57 (75%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Gagne – Brown – Kopitar11:53
xG 0.84–0.20 (81%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Richards – King – Nolan8:16
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Richardson – Kopitar2:01
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov16:10
xG 1.95–0.31 (86%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
- Martinez – Voynov2:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Voynov2:24
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Miller – Emmerton6:48
xG 1.06–0.82 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Andersson – Tatar8:17
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Filppula11:38
xG 0.37–0.74 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Brunner11:34
xG 0.25–1.32 (16%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- White – Ericsson14:39
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Quincey – Kindl11:08
xG 0.78–0.91 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Lashoff14:38
xG 0.56–1.74 (24%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).