Sun, Feb 10, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 14 | 213 | 06 | 323 |
| PIT | 010 | 05 | 19 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:06NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:27NJDIlya KovalchukGWGAssists: Stefan Matteau · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 13:20NJDDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–0
- P3 0:15PITJames NealPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:04PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:04NJDRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:50NJDStephen Gionta: Interference2 min
- P1 18:45NJDAnton Volchenkov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:09PITJames Neal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:48NJDStephen Gionta: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Carter – Josefson2:15
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter6:09
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Henrique10:11
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Matteau11:23
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalvador – Fayne14:03
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson18:47
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky11:24
xG 0.11–0.67 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:43
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Neal – Boychuk11:03
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter8:39
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Jeffrey5:33
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Martin17:45
xG 0.98–0.34 (74%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Engelland – Despres2:51
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Reese2:30
xG 0.05–0.04 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).