Mon, Feb 11, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 022 | 113 | 246 |
| TOR | 18 | 310 | 16 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Luke Schenn, Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 14:49TORDion PhaneufAssists: Leo Komarov, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:05TORColton OrrAssists: Frazer McLaren, Cody Franson · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 2:33TORMatt FrattinGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 6:15TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Nazem Kadri, Matt Frattin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 1:11TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 19:28PHITye McGinnAssists: Kurtis Foster, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:15PHIZac Rinaldo: Holding2 min
- P1 15:20PHIMike Knuble: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:44PHIClaude Giroux: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:23TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:31TORKorbinian Holzer: Boarding5 min
- P2 13:31TORKorbinian Holzer: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 5:28PHIMike Knuble: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:10PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference2 min
- P3 12:46TORColton Orr: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:53TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:53PHIZac Rinaldo: Holding2 min
- P3 17:53PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:53TORDion Phaneuf: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Schenn – Read10:32
xG 0.75–0.28 (73%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Brière – Giroux – Simmonds10:48
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Sestito – Rinaldo4:56
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Knuble – Talbot – McGinn8:05
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn11:10
xG 0.79–0.17 (83%)attempts 16–7goals 1–2
- Coburn – Gervais11:55
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Foster – Gervais2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Frattin – Kadri8:46
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Orr – McClement – McLaren5:10
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:41
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Komarov – Kulemin11:05
xG 0.26–1.11 (19%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser10:34
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 3–1
- Phaneuf – Kostka3:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Fraser2:08
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).